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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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