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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd